Daily Pulse
One of our most accessible tools, this daily comment keeps you abreast of developments on the North American and international financial markets.
Michel Doucet
Vice-President and
Portfolio Manager
November 21, 2025
Canada
The number of Canadian residents returning from trips to the US fell 30.9% y/y in September 2025, while the number of trips to Canada by US residents declined 2.6% y/y. Overall, 468k fewer visitors from the US have come to Canada this year compared with the same period last year, but this has been largely offset by an additional 318k visitors from overseas. The sharp drop in trips by Canadian residents to the US—particularly by car—possibly suggests shifting travel and “Buy Canadian” preferences.
United States
The US labour market was surprisingly sturdy in September. Payrolls rose 119K, besting estimates for an increase of 51K. Job gains were fairly concentrated, with healthcare, leisure and hospitality accounting for nearly all of the gains. There was a pop in construction employment, but most of that strength appears to be a rebound from weakness at the end of the summer. Overall private payrolls rose 97K, leaving the three-month moving average at 70K. While that’s up from August, it is still down from nearly 200K at the beginning of the year. The unemployment rate rose a tick in September, in part driven by a rise in the participation rate. The unemployment rate now stands at 4.4%, up from 4.3%. Yesterday’s report will likely be the last conventional payrolls report of the year. October’s release, which will not include a reading for the unemployment rate, and will be packaged with the November payrolls set to be released the week following the December meeting.
Walmart increased its outlook for sales in the full year, a sign the world’s biggest retailer is winning over price-sensitive shoppers while digesting costs it expects to rise in the coming months. The company now sees net sales rising 4.8% to 5.1%, higher than its previous projection in August. It marks a second increase in forecast during the fiscal year.
Europe
A 28-point peace plan floated by US and Russian envoys would force Ukraine to cede large chunks of territory taken by Russia, cap the size of its military and lift sanctions on Moscow over time. The plan would require Ukraine to hold elections in 100 days and give up any hope of NATO membership, with the Ukrainian regions of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk being “recognized as de facto Russian”. Ukraine would receive a US security guarantee, but the US would also get 50% of profits to rebuild and invest in Ukraine, and enter an economic partnership with Russia once sanctions are lifted.
Private-sector activity in the euro area stayed strong in November, feeding hopes that economic growth can pick up in the last months of the year.
Asia
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet approved a stimulus plan, the biggest since Covid, featuring ¥17.7 trillion in general account spending to address voters' frustrations. The total package is valued at ¥21.3 trillion, with measures aimed at price relief, including cutting the gasoline tax and raising the tax-free income threshold. The price measures are expected to push down the overall inflation gauge by an average 0.7 percentage point from February to April, according to the Cabinet Office.
OpenAI is partnering with Hon Hai to design and manufacture hardware for data centers and Hon Hai aims to spend up to $5 billion growing its US manufacturing footprint.